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Evidence-Based Medicine 2007;12:88; doi:10.1136/ebm.12.3.88
Copyright © 2007 by the BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.

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Clinical prediction guide

The ABCD, California, and unified ABCD2 risk scores predicted stroke within 2, 7, and 90 days after TIA

Johnston SC, Rothwell PM, Nguyen-Huynh MN, et al. Validation and refinement of scores to predict very early stroke risk after transient ischaemic attack. Lancet 2007;369:283–92.[CrossRef][Medline]

Q In patients with transient ischaemic attack (TIA), how does a new unified risk score (ABCD2) compare with the previously developed ABCD and California scores for predicting 2, 7, and 90 day stroke risk?

Clinical impact ratings GP/FP/Primary care ******{star} Neurology ******{star} Internal medicine *****{star}{star}

Key Words: cerebrovascular accident • ischaemic attack (transient)

The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below.

METHODS
Formula Design: 6 cohort studies: 2 derivation cohorts (California emergency department [ED] and Oxford population) and 4 independent validation cohorts (California ED, California clinic, Oxford population, and Oxford clinic).

Formula Setting: EDs and primary care clinics in the San Francisco Bay area, California, USA and family practices and specialist clinics in Oxfordshire, UK.

Formula Patients: 1916 patients (78% >60 y, 52% women) for derivation and 2893 patients (76% >60 y, 53% women) for validation who were diagnosed with TIA by the initial treating doctor.

Formula Description of prediction guide: The ABCD2 score was generated in the 2 original derivation cohorts by multivariate logistic regression analysis of individual risk factors from the ABCD and California scores. The risk score with the greatest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for 2 day stroke was selected. The unified ABCD2 score (range 0–7) was a summation of 5 independent risk predictors: Age (>=60 y = . . . [Full text of this article]

Graeme J Hankey, MD

Royal Perth Hospital,
Perth, Western Australia, Australia







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