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Evid Based Med 9:188 doi:10.1136/ebm.9.6.188
  • Clinical prediction guide

A bedside prediction tool predicted all cause mortality 6 months after discharge for acute coronary syndrome

Multivariate predictors for all cause mortality 6 months after hospital discharge in acute coronary syndrome (ACS)*

Predictors Hazard ratio (95% CI)
Derivation cohort Validation cohort All patients with ACS
*PCI  =  percutaneous coronary intervention. CI defined in glossary.
Age per 10 y increase 1.8 (1.6 to 1.9) 1.7 (1.5 to 1.9) 1.7 (1.6 to 1.8)
History of myocardial infarction 1.5 (1.3 to 1.8) 1.2 (0.9 to 1.5) 1.4 (1.2 to 1.6)
History of congestive heart failure 2.2 (1.8 to 2.6) 2.0 (1.5 to 2.7) 2.1 (1.8 to 2.5)
Pulse per 30/min increase 1.3 (1.2 to 1.4) 1.4 (1.2 to 1.7) 1.3 (1.2 to 1.5)
Systolic blood pressure per 20 mm Hg decrease 1.1 (1.08 to 1.2) 1.0 (0.9 to 1.2) 1.1 (1.06 to 1.2)
Initial serum creatinine concentration per 1 mg/dl increase 1.2 (1.1 to 1.24) 1.2 (1.1 to 1.3) 1.2 (1.1 to 1.23)
Initial cardiac enzyme elevation 1.6 (1.4 to 1.9) 1.5 (1.2 to 2.0) 1.5 (1.3 to 1.8)
ST segment depression 1.4 (1.2 to 1.7) 1.6 (1.3 to 2.1) 1.5 (1.3 to 1.7)
No inhospital PCI 1.6 (1.2 to 2.0) 1.5 (1.1 to 2.1) 1.9 (1.3 to 1.9)

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