Test properties of 5 models for predicting complications in diabetes (validation dataset)*
| Type of complication | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micro- and macrovascular | Infectious disease | Metabolic | ||||||||||
| Model | Sens | Spec | +LR | –LR | Sens | Spec | +LR | –LR | Sens | Spec | +LR | –LR |
| *Sens = sensitivity; Spec = specificity. Diagnostic terms defined in glossary. Data on specificity, +LR, and –LR provided by author. | ||||||||||||
| †The “best” models for predicting complications included predictors from the following categories: patient demographics, previous diagnoses of complications, metabolic measurements, medication, and healthcare utilisation measures. | ||||||||||||
| ‡Cut point of patients with the highest 30% of predicted risk scores. | ||||||||||||
| Best models†‡ | 72% | 73% | 2.68 | 0.38 | 72% | 71% | 2.49 | 0.39 | 83% | 70% | 2.79 | 0.24 |
| Previous events | 72% | 72% | 2.57 | 0.39 | 44% | 86% | 3.10 | 0.65 | 33% | 99% | 24.6 | 0.68 |
| 3 variables‡ | 71% | 73% | 2.63 | 0.40 | 68% | 71% | 2.35 | 0.45 | 75% | 70% | 2.52 | 0.35 |
| Risk score† | 74% | 70% | 2.47 | 0.37 | 67% | 71% | 2.32 | 0.46 | 82% | 71% | 2.86 | 0.25 |
| HbA1c concentration‡ | 31% | 70% | 1.04 | 0.98 | 38% | 70% | 1.28 | 0.88 | 59% | 70% | 1.97 | 0.59 |