Interim analyses in clinical trials: classical vs. Bayesian approaches

Stat Med. 1985 Oct-Dec;4(4):521-6. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780040412.

Abstract

This paper concerns interim analysis in clinical trials involving two treatments from the points of view of both classical and Bayesian inference. I criticize classical hypothesis testing in this setting and describe and recommend a Bayesian approach in which sampling stops when the probability that one treatment is the better exceeds a specified value. I consider application to normal sampling analysed in stages and evaluate the gain in average sample number as a function of the number of interim analyses.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Bayes Theorem*
  • Clinical Trials as Topic*
  • Humans
  • Probability*
  • Time Factors