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Clinical prediction guide
A clinical prediction model predicted absence of significant fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B

https://doi.org/10.1136/ebm.10.5.155

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    Hui AY, Chan HL, Wong VW, et al. Identification of chronic hepatitis B patients without significant liver fibrosis by a simple noninvasive predictive model. Am J Gastroenterol 2005;100:616–23.
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 Q In patients with chronic hepatitis B, what clinical and laboratory variables predict liver fibrosis?

    Clinical impact ratings Internal medicine ★★★★★★☆ Gastroenterology ★★★★★★☆

    METHODS

    Embedded ImageDesign:

    cohort study with independent derivation and validation sets.

    Embedded ImageSetting:

    Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong.

    Embedded ImagePatients:

    235 patients (mean age 39 y, 77% men) who had HBV-DNA concentrations >105 copies/ml and were treatment-naïve. Alanine transaminase (ALT) concentrations were 1.5–10 × the upper limit of normal; ALT concentrations were not part of the inclusion criteria for cirrhotic patients. 150 patients formed the derivation set, and 85 patients formed the validation set.

    Embedded ImageDescription of prediction guide:

    predictive models were developed by using univariate analysis to obtain significant variables; these were entered in a multivariate stepwise logistic regression. The diagnostic value of each …

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    Footnotes

    • For correspondence: Dr H L Chan, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, Hong Kong. hlychancuhk.edu.hk

    • Sources of funding: Research Grants Council and Chinese University of Hong Kong.