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The high risk criteria of a clinical prediction model were specific but not sensitive for predicting ectopic pregnancy

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 QUESTION: In women with abdominal pain or vaginal bleeding in the first trimester of pregnancy, how accurate is a clinical prediction model for predicting ectopic pregnancy?


2 cohort studies: 1 for derivation and 1 for validation of the clinical prediction model results.


The emergency department of a tertiary care, military, teaching hospital in San Diego, California, USA.


Women who were haemodynamically stable and had abdominal pain or vaginal bleeding in the first trimester of pregnancy. Exclusion criteria were previous documentation of an intrauterine pregnancy (IUP) on pelvic ultrasonography, enrolment in the prospective clinical data registry on a previous visit to the emergency department, or estimated gestational age and corresponding uterine size of ≥13 weeks. 486 women (mean …

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  • Source of funding: no external funding.

  • For correspondence: Dr RG Buckley, c/o Susana Hazelden, AVA, Clinical Investigation Department, Naval Medical Center San Diego, 34800 Bob Wilson Drive, Suite 5, San Diego, CA 92134-1005, USA. Fax +1 619 532 8137. Email rgbuckley{at}