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Several simple rules predicted complications in high risk patients with diabetes
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 QUESTION: What is the accuracy of a prediction rule for identifying patients with diabetes mellitus who are at high short term risk for macro- and microvascular events, infectious disease, and metabolic complications?

Design

A cohort of patients, randomly split into derivation and validation datasets.

Setting

Kaiser Permanente health maintenance organization (HMO) in Oakland, California, USA.

Patients

57 722 members of the HMO who were ≥ 19 years of age, had diabetes, and were continuously enrolled in the health plan during the 2 year baseline period. The derivation dataset included 28 838 patients (mean age 61 y, 53% men), and the validation dataset included 28 884 patients (mean age 61 y, 52% men).

Description of prediction guide

A “best” model and 4 simpler …

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