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Q In patients presenting with heart failure, does a clinical prediction model adequately stratify the risk of death at 30 days and 1 year?
Clinical ratings GP/FP/Primary care ★★★★★★☆ IM/Ambulatory care ★★★★★★☆ Cardiology ★★★★★☆☆ Critical care ★★★★★☆☆
METHODS
Design:
2 cohort studies, 1 for derivation and 1 for validation.
Setting:
derivation cohort: 34 hospitals; validation cohort: 14 hospitals in Ontario, Canada.
Patients:
newly admitted patients (2624 for derivation [mean age 67 y, 51% women] and 1407 for validation [mean age 75 y, 51% women]) with a primary diagnosis of heart failure meeting modified Framingham heart failure criteria. Exclusion criteria included development of heart failure after admission, transfer from another acute care facility, and age ⩾105 years.
Prediction guide:
potential candidate variables were identified based on literature review, expert …