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A clinical prediction model predicted 30 day and 1 year mortality in patients admitted to hospital for heart failure

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 Q In patients presenting with heart failure, does a clinical prediction model adequately stratify the risk of death at 30 days and 1 year?

Clinical ratings GP/FP/Primary care ★★★★★★☆ IM/Ambulatory care ★★★★★★☆ Cardiology ★★★★★☆☆ Critical care ★★★★★☆☆

METHODS

Embedded ImageDesign:

2 cohort studies, 1 for derivation and 1 for validation.

Embedded ImageSetting:

derivation cohort: 34 hospitals; validation cohort: 14 hospitals in Ontario, Canada.

Embedded ImagePatients:

newly admitted patients (2624 for derivation [mean age 67 y, 51% women] and 1407 for validation [mean age 75 y, 51% women]) with a primary diagnosis of heart failure meeting modified Framingham heart failure criteria. Exclusion criteria included development of heart failure after admission, transfer from another acute care facility, and age ⩾105 years.

Embedded ImagePrediction guide:

potential candidate variables were identified based on literature review, expert …

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Footnotes

  • For correspondence: Dr J V Tu, Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. tuices.on.ca

  • Sources of funding: Ontario Ministry of Health; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; Heart and Stroke Foundation.