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A clinical prediction tool that includes modifiable risk factors predicted functional decline in elderly women

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 QUESTION: Is a clinical prediction tool that includes modifiable risk factors accurate for predicting functional decline in older women living in the community?


A cohort study, the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures, provided data for derivation (random two thirds of cohort) and validation (remaining one third of cohort) of the prediction tool.


3 US cities.


6632 of 9704 women (mean age 73 y) ≥65 years of age who were recruited from population based listings. Exclusion criteria were black race, inability to walk without the assistance of another person, and bilateral hip replacement. Women from the original cohort who had died; were lost to follow up; and had incomplete or missing data for exercise level, depressive symptoms, social networks, or physical performance were also …

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  • Source of funding: US Public Health Service.

  • For correspondence: Dr C A Sarkisian, Department of Medicine, Box 951736, Division of General Internal Medicine, 911 Broxton Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1736, USA. Fax +1 310 794 0723.