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A simple model based on wound size and duration predicted healing of venous leg ulcers at 24 weeks

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 QUESTION: In patients with venous leg ulcers, can a simple prediction rule be derived to identify those patients who will heal within 24 weeks with the use of limb compression bandages?


2 cohort studies—1 each for model derivation and validation.


Derivation was done in a retrospective cohort from a cutaneous ulcer centre in a university hospital in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. Validation was done in >20 US clinical sites.


260 patients (mean age 66 y, 61% women, 62% white) were in the derivation cohort, and 219 patients (mean age 62 y, 51% women, 70% white) were in the validation cohort. Inclusion criteria for the derivation set were venous leg ulcer in the area from mid-calf to 1 inch below the malleolus, past or current history of lower leg edema that had improved with raising the leg, and other venous diseases. Exclusion criteria were ischaemic leg, life expectancy ≤24 weeks, recent use of immunosuppressive …

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  • Sources of funding: In part, the Dermatology Foundation and National Institutes of Health.

  • For correspondence: Dr D J Margolis, Department of Dermatology, University of Pennsylvania, School of Medicine, Room 815, Blockley Hall, 423 Guardian Drive, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA. Fax +1 215 573 5315.

  • A modified version of this abstract and commentary also appears in Evidence-Based Nursing.